The Exponential Age

General discussion about the Elder Race, Life, the Universe and Everything.
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LoneBear
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The Exponential Age

Post by LoneBear » Sun Sep 25, 2016 9:24 am

Sent to me by Greg & Linda...

In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide. Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went bankrupt.

What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 10 years - and most people won't see it coming. Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictures on film again?

Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore's law. So as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a long time, before it became way superior and got mainstream in only a few short years. It will now happen with Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs. Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution. Welcome to the Exponential Age.

Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.

Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world.

Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties.

Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected.

In the US, young lawyers already don't get jobs. Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans.

So if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% less lawyers in the future, only specialists will remain.

Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 times more accurate than human nurses. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.

Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You don't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving. Our kids will never get a driver's license and will never own a car.

It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% less cars for that. We can transform former parking spaces into parks. 1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 60,000 mi (100,000 km), with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 6 million miles (10 million km). That will save a million lives each year.

Most car companies will probably become bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels.

Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; are completely terrified of Tesla.

Insurance companies will have massive trouble because without accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.

Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.

Electric cars will become mainstream about 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all new cars will run on electricity. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can now see the burgeoning impact.

Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. Energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to prevent competition from home solar installations, but that can't last. Technology will take care of that strategy.

With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination of salt water now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter (@ 0.25 cents). We don't have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.

Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There are companies who will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you breath into it. It then analyses 54 bio-markers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medical analysis, nearly for free. Goodbye, medical establishment.

3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies have already started 3D printing shoes.

Some spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large amount of spare parts they used to have in the past.

At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home.

In China, they already 3D printed and built a complete 6-story office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D printed.

Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask yourself: "in the future, do you think we will have that?" and if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner?

If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the 21st century.

Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a small time.

Agriculture: There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all day on their fields.

Aeroponics will need much less water. The first Petri dish produced veal, is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don't need that space anymore. There are several startups who will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labeled as "alternative protein source" (because most people still reject the idea of eating insects).

There is an app called "moodies" which can already tell in which mood you're in. By 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions, if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it's being displayed when they're telling the truth and when they're not.

Bitcoin may even become the default reserve currency of the world.

Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year. Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80 years. The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more that one year increase per year. So we all might live for a long, long time, probably way more than 100.

Education: The cheapest smart phones are already at $10 in Africa and Asia. By 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smart phone. That means, everyone has the same access to world class education.

Every child can use Khan academy for everything a child learns at school in First World countries. We have already released our software in Indonesia and will release it in Arabic, Suaheli and Chinese this summer, because I see an enormous potential. We will give the English app for free, so that children in Africa can become fluent in English within half a year.

And on it goes.......
Keeper of the Troth of Ásgarðr, Moriar prius quam dedecorer.

Ilkka
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Re: The Exponential Age

Post by Ilkka » Sun Sep 25, 2016 1:02 pm

Overall quite nasty stuff. But one thing, if it comes true, is that of cars which would be electric, less in numbers and selfdriven. Although I find it quite boring to just sit all by myself if not driving, I remember those days when I used busses to go to school. Hopefully I dont need to use them any longer "knocking the wood".
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Andrew
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Re: The Exponential Age

Post by Andrew » Sun Sep 25, 2016 1:51 pm

Crap. That moodies app is accurate. I can see now why the technomages will believe their way of life is the natural progression in human evolution.

No wonder the SMs couldn't be destroyed. This exponential curve shows technology will become so powerful it will be difficult for even a master wizard with an arsenal of creative spells to defend himself against total assimilation. Mars was probably destroyed over this central issue - to utilize carbon (one's self) or Silicon (machines) in acquiring jing and shen. I am always a "best of both worlds" guy. Tech should still be used unless it becomes incompatible with ourselves or the environment (i.e. electricity doesn't work in Hogwarts.) But if the world is going to be saved by technology, humanity will undoubtedly accept it with open arms. It's hard to argue against children in third-world countries receiving "world class education" and farmers becoming the masters of their fields with agriculture bots doing all the work. But that is still the mentality of humans today: they need a savior.

I see war. This kind of dependency does nothing to teach about the illegitimacy of government; it supports techno-government. The world appears even more regulated and less free. Undriveable cars?? This world is senseless. Everyone will need VR for stimulation. This app, moodies, is the just the beginning of what will come, which is already accurately portrayed in the movie, Her. Since AI will be able to read and understand humans better than humans can, I think the technomages will literally only be able to feel emotions when they are with their silicon-counterparts; their time and soul will be bound to their tech. Thus, they will defend their way of life. Without technology, they might literally die. And they sense that.

I can't fully get all of my sentiment out on this post, as moodies has accurately detected my underlying emotion. Loneliness: Emotional void. Need for warmth. Fear of challenges, defensive and emotional. Strong convictions.
"Classical historians traditionally dismiss tales of magic as unworthy of scholarly attention, but to us any mention of a witch's broomstick or wizard's wand evokes the smell of a scientist's laboratory." The Sphinx and the Megaliths

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Andrew
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Re: The Exponential Age

Post by Andrew » Mon Sep 26, 2016 10:18 pm

That will save a million lives each year.
This statement of saving lives only speaks to the reptilian brains in all of us. It sounds good. We all want to survive. But how many people die because of stupid decisions? You are supposed to pay nature's consequences for not adapting to its laws. I particularly like daniel's analysis that if you were to die spontaneously, like in an accident, or by murder, that your jing gets converted in that flash of time to Qi which makes you eligible to reincarnate. The consequence of having machines do everything for people is to develop an even more repressed way of living. People will have no space to claim as their own, as machines will become the dictatorial forces in all existence on this planet - temporally anyway; they will have access to all the information humans do and more, and will be able to process it at greater speeds. And since the reciprocal of our bodily structure, our soul, is made of spatial/cosmic atoms, that is a problem. We don't have room to breathe in a mechanistic world. Literally. We will need an invisible Hogwarts more than ever.
"Classical historians traditionally dismiss tales of magic as unworthy of scholarly attention, but to us any mention of a witch's broomstick or wizard's wand evokes the smell of a scientist's laboratory." The Sphinx and the Megaliths

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Re: The Exponential Age

Post by Ilkka » Tue Sep 27, 2016 10:03 am

Andrew wrote:I particularly like daniel's analysis that if you were to die spontaneously, like in an accident, or by murder, that your jing gets converted in that flash of time to Qi which makes you eligible to reincarnate.
If you have sufficient amount of Qi to reincarnate in total with a bit of Shen of course. So lets say that you need 10 "kilos" of Qi to reincarnate and when you die spontaneously and get all Jing to Qi transformation to have only 9 "kilos" of Qi then the unfortunate happens and you get to go into "recycling machine" of the universe.

Thats why it is important to accumulate Qi and Shen throughout the living time if one chooses the spiritual evolutionary path that is.
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